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I didn't suggest it was impossible, but just seemed unlikely given what we have seen to date. I'm not going to put myself in the position of some Kremlinologist from my youth assuming that current events are fixed in stone - too much has changed during my lifespan for that to be true. Though I didn't think the Soviets were likely to collapse when they did, either. Did you?

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I was a kitten at the time, not that it matters.

The point is that lots of things that experts and conventional wisdom would say are impossible happen.

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